Aug 30 2004 The Huddle Report's Approach to the Draft Robby Esch THR
GM
Background
What would become The Huddle Report actually started in 1993, when I
began working to rate players for the draft.As a fan of the NFL and of the NFL Draft for years, I wanted
to evaluate whether or not my favorite team was getting good players
in the draft.I had
worked as a scout for college sports; therefore, when I started the
ranking system, I was looking at it from a scout’s point of view and
using a scout’s available tools.I would rate the players from watching film or in the few
college games I would see in person each year.
Then, when I worked the next draft with the early Draft Value Boards
I had developed, I quickly found out a couple of things:1) Despite my best efforts, the 50-100 players I had rated
were not enough; and 2) most importantly, some of my grades varied
greatly from how NFL teams graded the same players.This was acceptable if I wanted to be a scout, but my goal
was to have a pretty good idea of whom my favorite team would pick
when their pick came.
So, I changed my approach and started putting together a list by
studying the NFL teams – which players they liked, how they rated
them.
What I came up with was a formula that rated how accurate the NFL
Draft information I got from teams and other sources was to the
actual outcome of the draft.Over the next few years, I tweaked this system until close to
80% of my top 100 players were selected in the first 100 picks of
the draft.I believe
this information is more important to fans than who I think is the
best player because when you sit down to watch the draft, you want
to know who has a better than 75% chance being available to your
team when their pick comes up.This is what I sought to provide fans with when I launched
The Huddle Report in January of 2001.In this, my role to the draft landscape changed from scout to
analyst.Between 2001
and 2003, Aaron Freeman joined the staff at THR to provide research
on each of the NFL teams and their individual position needs.
Following the 2003 Draft, I
realized something was missing from THR’s draft site – a truly
independent and exclusive analysis of each of the players I rank on
our Draft Value Board.
Drew Boylhart was added to the staff at that time to contribute his
unique style of player profiles to the site for the 2004 Draft.Drew is the closest thing to a scout that we have at THR,
even though he would disagree (see Drew’s article ‘Bring the HEAT’
for more information).
With the combination of
Drew’s profiles, Aaron’s NFL team analysis and my Draft Value Board,
I believe that draft fans get the best of both worlds – a Draft
Value Board built on research and profiles based on scouting (but
don’t tell Drew I said that).
Constructing the Draft Value Board
Each May, when I start to build a Draft Value Board for the next
April’s draft, I start by looking for a consensus of the top seniors
in which NFL teams have shown an interest.At this point, I also rate the seniors by position and
calculate a separate rating of juniors by position.
The staple of our draft
coverage/report is our Draft Value Board.It tells you where our research and analysis says a player
will be drafted.We
stack and re-stack our board up to Draft Day to try and be as
accurate as possible.
We do this because we know that as a fan, you don’t care if we have
a guy that is selected with the 99th pick was rated at #10.You will be better served by having a Draft Value Board that
reflects how NFL teams draft so that if your team picks at 18, 50
and 82, you can be sure that if you’re looking at THR’s Draft Value
Board, you have some certainty that the players we have rated at or
around these picks will be there when your team makes their
selection.
When I rank the
draft-eligible players for a draft 1-300, I do so according to where
my analysis of 11 months of research tell me that player will most
likely be selected.
Over the last 3 years, 81% of the players listed in our top 100 have
been drafted in the first 100 picks and 78% of our top 200 selected
in the top 200 picks. What does this show?It shows that our Draft Value Board gives you as close to a
consensus of the 32 NFL Draft Value Boards as is available. Accuracy
in our Draft Value Board is what I take pride in and is also why,
when the draft is complete, I again use our Draft Value Board to
grade each team’s performance in the draft – not by the players
drafted, but by the value obtained by each pick a team makes in the
draft.
Grading the Draft (Draft Management Grades)
The goal for an NFL team’s draft personnel is to build value for
their team in players that can either make a contribution
immediately or that can develop on the team and add value through
playing or in a trade.
This is why we say that it is better to take the best player
available rather than to try and fit a player of lower value to your
team’s need.An
illustration of this point would be Deuce McAllister of the New
Orleans Saints.While
the Saints may not have needed a running back in the draft to back
up Ricky Williams, Deuce was the best available player on the board
at the time.
Subsequently, they were able to develop this pick into the primary
running back once Ricky Williams was traded – plus, they added much
needed talent to their team in the trade.
Most media analysts will grade drafts on how talented the players
are that were chosen by each team.That is why, in a few years, a lot of A’s will be F’s and
vice versa. The sole purpose of THR’s draft management grades are to
give an indication of how well the each team’s front office managed
the draft.However, to
provide fans with what we predict an individual player may do in the
NFL, Drew’s profiles give an overview of each prospect’s abilities
and how well or poorly the player’s skills may transition to the
NFL.
The Huddle Report’s approach to draft gradesis one that measures the value of each selection taken
instead of the player chosen and/or the match made for each
individual team’s needs.It is more reflective of each NFL team’s player personnel
staff than it is of the player.How good a player actually is will not be fully realized
until after playing in the NFL.The difference is that we grade each team’s draft management
abilities.Based on the
consensus of research available on that particular draft day, did
they build a board of quality players?How did they manage their board on draft day?Did the team get value for their picks?
So, are our grades 100% right?No. But by having the most accurate Top 300 available, our
grades are the truest and fairest way to immediately evaluate how
each team did in the draft.
The combination of draft order and a players ranking is what
determines a team’s success in managing the draft.
This means that a top pick in the draft does not guarantee that the
player chosen will be great, but the probability of getting a
successful player at that spot is higher.However, this does not always happen.Case in point: in 1993, the Washington Redskins drafted Heath
Shuler with the 3rd overall pick.On that day, this was a good pick for the Redskins as
Shuler’s rating by most NFL teams warranted a selection that high in
the draft.
If Shuler’s rating placed him at the #3 pick, then the team received
equal value for their selection.If, however, Shuler had been projected as the 25th overall
pick and the Redskins took him at #3, then the value of their
selection would have been much lower.Even though they had quarterback as their top need, we would
have recommended they take either a quarterback that was rated
higher on the Draft Value Board or trade down to take Shuler or a
third option would be to take the best available player at the 3rd
selection.
When grading a team’s draft, we doubt that any team has ever
evaluated and given themselves an ‘F’ for their draft day
performance in the days following the draft because each team
chooses their draft pickets by how their Draft Value Board ranks
each player.So while
you may think that a team’s draft was bad --- they are pleased
because they were true to their Draft Value Board that they spent
months developing.When
we analyze each team’s performance after each draft, we do so in the
only way that we believe is fair for us and that is to be true to
our Draft Value Board. As
one NFC GM once said,
“The key in the draft is to maximize the value you get at each pick.You cannot manufacture a player at a certain point in the
draft just because he plays a particular position.”
We hope that you enjoy using The Huddle Report for your draft
coverage and analysis.
If you have any questions regarding our approach or analysis of the
draft, please feel free to e-mail us.
